This was posted on GOP12.com
My question for you is: How would you classify your state?
This is the closest Karl Rove will ever come to Nora Ephron.
Generally, once Iowa activists commit, they stay committed.
New Hampshire is different. Granite Staters also want to eyeball the candidates personally—but once they've committed, they'll fall out of love, then back in love, then out of love, then back in love.
If a candidate is lucky, his supporters are falling back in love on the eve of the primary.
South Carolina is more tribal, with each party poobah leading a group of tribesmen. Cultivate the leaders and a candidate will tend to get their followers.